Posted by Carrot on March 12, 2010 | No Comments
It’s time for those of us who write this blog to nail our colours to the mast and open ourselves to ridicule by partaking in the most dangerous type of writing in sport, that of prediction.
We’re combining the predictions for this weekend’s race and the entire season. Prepare your punchlines ladies and gentlemen, the only thing that is assured is that we will be wrong.
It’s wide open this season, last year Brawn had almost eight tenths of a second advantage in testing, the prediction was obvious and most people made it. This year people are tipping four top teams, with no clue how to pick between them. This season’s going to be lots of fun.
2010 Season Predictions
Everyone’s tipping Ferrari and Alonso for the drivers’ crown, and a split between Ferrari and McLaren for the constructors’ laurels. I don’t fully agree with that. I’m also going to make an extra prediction, that of the number of teams to win a race this year.
- Formula One World Champion, Driver, 2010 – Mark Webber. “What?” I hear you exclaim already. Yes, Mark Webber, Aussie bloke, broke his leg, drives a car made by a drinks company, that’s my pick of the year. For a couple of reasons. The first being Mark and his team, there’s continuity at Red Bull, Webber and his team mate return this year along with Adrian Newey’s design team that almost won both championships last year. Red Bull have strength based on familiarity, everyone knows their job and everyone’s doing it rather than having to take time to fit in. Webber’s fully fit, unlike last year where he could barely walk for the first few races and Webber manages to nurse a sick car home to points unlike Vettel who makes his female monikered cars (this year named Luscious Liz) blow up in spectacular ways. The second reason is Top Gear. Yes, the BBC2 motoring show, look at all the drivers that have done a lap in their reasonably priced car, all were either F1 World Champion before they did a lap (Mansell and Hill) or became World Champion after doing the lap (Hamilton and Button). Certain patterns fit in Formula 1, the winner of the first GP of the year usually wins the World Championship, there’s no reason why this pattern shouldn’t fit either. Completely baseless this argument may be, but we’ll see come the end of the season. That reminds me, another small prediction, the winner of the first GP of the season will not win the World Championship this year.
- Formula One World Champion, Constructor, 2010 – McLaren. Simple, to the point and really obvious when you think about it. Last year McLaren had a development pace that no-one else, including Championship contenders Brawn and Red Bull couldn’t match. They also have two very different drivers, Button with his Prost-like smooth style and Hamilton with his Senna-like aggressiveness. Any track that we race this year should suit at least one of their drivers, allowing them to score consistent points. Also does anyone remember what happened when they had a smooth driver partnered with an aggressive driver combined with technical superiority? Look up the results of the 1988 season.
- Number of teams that will win a Grand Prix in 2010 – 5. All the top teams (Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes) and a surprise from one of the midfield teams (Sauber, Williams or Force India). Don’t ask me why, but it’s just something I can see happening.
Bahrain Grand Prix Predictions
Here I am going to follow the herd, it’s just common sense for this race weekend.
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Winner – Fernando Alonso. The Ferrari is fast, Alonso hungry after a year without a win, it’s almost inevitable.
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Pole Position – Lewis Hamilton. Over one lap he’s one of the best in the world, add in that controversial rear wing and its new features, that’s where I’d put my money.
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Fastest Lap – Jenson Button. Looking after the tyres is Button’s biggest difference from his team mate, coupled with that rear wing (again) and late in the race on Sunday is when Jenson could come good.
- Other predictions – At least two safety car periods during the race, no HRT car to reach the chequered flag and at least two arguments after the race, one from McLaren’s rear wing and one from a coming together between two drivers.
Finally, given I’m watching the first practice session as I write this, and we’ve now got full details about this McLaren rear wing in the BBC red button coverage, a quick word on the controversy. I do not understand how this isn’t considered a moveable aerodynamic device when Renault’s mass damper was deemed illegal and banned, I really don’t.
- Formula One World Champion, Driver, 2010 – Lewis Hamilton. In the last 12 months we have seen Lewis Hamilton mature both as a driver and as a man. The McLaren has been designed around Hamilton (Jenson had problems fitting in the car due to being about 9cm taller!) and I expect him to shine this season.
- Formula One World Champion, Constructor, 2010 – McLaren. With probably the strongest driver line up and the much talked about trick rear wing, McLaren seem to be in great shape.
- Number of teams that will win a Grand Prix in 2010 – 4. I am going to stick my neck out here and say Mercedes will not win a grand prix all season (head straight to the bookmakers and put your money on them for Bahrain, I am bound to be wrong!) McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Force India are my picks.
Bahrain Grand Prix Predictions
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Winner – Lewis Hamilton.
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Pole Position – Lewis Hamilton.
- Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 Fastest Lap – Fernando Alonso.
- Other predictions – One of the new teams to not even make the start, let alone the chequered flag.